Businesses are one of the many sectors affected by COVID-19. With no end in sight, the future of the global economy is murky. Marcus Debaise notes the pandemic has triggered an unprecedented economic crisis on top of the day-to-day life disruptions.
Due to this, countries around the world have been ramping up their domestic testing and participating in the search for an effective vaccine. In addition to global health, many wonder about what it will take for the global economy to recover. Will business be able to return to normal? Or has this pandemic changed the economic sector irrevocably?
The path to recovery – As foreseen by Marcus Debaise
The path to recovery will consist of four distinct phases – Reaction, Resilience, Recovery, New reality.
Reaction – The internationally implemented lockdown has changed the way humans around the world perform their day-to-day activities. Additionally, we have seen various travel bans and other policies implemented in reaction to the unprecedented global pandemic.
Resilience – Proper social distancing measures and hygienic practices, like sanitization of public spaces and appropriate handwashing, can help mitigate the effects of COVID-19, even without the development of the proper vaccine. If these measures are taken, we may see a rebirth of economic prosperity, allowing those affected by the disease to build up their economic resilience over time.
Recovery – A post-COVID-19 recovery would include the rehiring of workers and rebuilding of previously successful industries. Organizations will adapt different paths of recovery based on their success in limiting damage during the Reaction stage, industry demand, length and severity of recession and willingness to adapt. It is important to maintain an optimistic and flexible outlook during the recovery stage.
New Reality – COVID-19 has exposed the pre-existing weak links across governments, industries, and economies. There will be a radical shift in addressing the shortcomings of policies and industries as we develop our new-normal and settle into our New Reality.
The vision of new reality and the possible timelines
Indeed, it is hard to conceptualize the world post-COVID-19, but from our past experiences with other pandemics, we can start to imagine what the future may look like. Here are some ideas of our New Realities likely to emerge, according to Marcus Debaise.
Post COVID-19 – This scenario is expected by the companies engaged in vaccine research who expect a vaccine for COVID-19 to be available within 12-18 months. If this vaccine were to be completely effective AND the majority of the population received it, it would be expected that most restrictions would be lifted and a general sense of normalcy would return.
Live with COVID-19 – If no vaccine becomes available, the world may turn to herd immunity and accept the permanent presence of COVID-19. This is the case with the common flu, and thus we would have a learning curve to adjust to this new lifestyle.
These two new realities could completely revolutionize the workplace. We would expect productivity to become less reliant on labor. Nativist regulations are expected to redefine market economics and companies will redefine their purpose.